U.S. Clears Ukraine for Deeper Strikes into Russia Amid Nuclear Escalation Fears

This article discusses the U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use American weapons for deeper strikes into Russian territory and its implications on the risk of nuclear escalation. Here are the key points:

1. Nuclear Escalation Risks:
   • U.S. intelligence has consistently assessed that loosening restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons would not provoke a Russian nuclear response. This view remains unchanged even after President Biden’s policy shift allowing deeper strikes.
   • Russian President Vladimir Putin has frequently made nuclear threats, but intelligence reports suggest these are unlikely to be carried out as nuclear strikes lack clear military advantages and would be a last resort.
2. Recent Developments:
   • Russia recently launched a new ballistic missile, which analysts view as a warning to the U.S. and Europe. However, this has not altered the assessment regarding nuclear risks.
   • Moscow has adjusted its nuclear doctrine, reportedly lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike.
3. Hybrid Warfare and Sabotage:
   • U.S. and European officials are more concerned about Russia’s “gray-zone” tactics, including sabotage, cyberattacks, and other forms of covert retaliation. Russian intelligence efforts are reportedly targeting European countries that support Ukraine.
4. North Korea’s Role:
   • North Korea’s involvement, with reports of 11,000-12,000 troops aiding Russia, influenced the U.S. decision to expand Ukraine’s military options. This was perceived as an escalation by Russia, requiring a counter-escalation from Washington.
5. Biden Administration’s Decision:
   • Initially, there were significant concerns within the U.S. government about provoking Russia. However, intelligence assessments downplaying nuclear risks and battlefield developments prompted the administration to permit broader use of long-range missiles by Ukraine.
6. Russian Response:
   • Moscow’s retaliation is likely to focus on sabotage and covert operations rather than overt military escalation.

The decision underscores the balancing act in U.S. foreign policy between supporting Ukraine militarily and managing the risks of escalation with Russia. The situation remains fluid, with concerns about both the ongoing war and broader geopolitical stability.